MLB Picks July 15-17, British Open Props

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Jeffrey “Coach” Belanger is joined by Joel “the Joker” in his triumphant return for emergency surgery in Podcast #66 the Mario Lemieux episode. They review MLB picks for Friday July 15th, Saturday July 16th and Sunday July 17th, MLB future bets and British Open Prop bets. You can contact Coach with any sports or gambling related comments or questions at jeffreybelanger8@gmail.com or on twitter @coachbelanger. www.jeffreybelanger.com

Some other favorite sites I like to visit www.badbeatbetting.wordpress.comwww.cappedin.comwww.vegasinsider.com

 

British Open Golf Props
Winner Kevin Na +17,500, Justin Rose +3,300, Jordan Speith +1,000
Top Ten Finish Justin Rose +300, Kevin Na +1200
Top 20 Finish Kevin Na +550
Top Englishman Justin Rose +450
Top Irish Player Graeme McDowell +650
MLB Picks
Friday July 15th
Astros over Mariners Doug Fister had a long streak of starts where the Astros won each of his games snapped on June 26th. Since that streak was snapped the Astros have lost all his starts (3 in a row). He has thrown twice against the M’s this year allowing 3 runs in each start. James Paxton has pitched great in his last 2 starts but does give up a lot of hits. He has a 1.59 whip this season even though he pitched well in those previous 2 starts he really had to work out of some jams. This type of pitching will usually catch up to a pitcher eventually.
Tigers over Royals Justin Verlander pitched well enough to beat the Royals 10-4 back in June. The previous 3 years despite a 5-6 record he has been solid against a very good Kansas City team with a 3.92 ERA with 50 runs allowed in over 100 innings of work. Ian Kennedy lost in a home start to the Tigers 3-2 way back in April. That is his only home loss for the Royals. This game is in Detroit and Ian Kennedy has been a much different pitcher on the road this season. He has a 2.11 ERA at home and a 5.14 ERA on the road. A few other road stats that make this game a particularly good pick 200 BAA at Home, .248 on the road and 4 homers allowed at home, 17 on the road.
Twins over Indians My riskiest pick of the weekend, the Twinkies over the Indians. Ervin Santana has poor numbers in 2016 but in his last 4 starts has been magnificent. Those 4 opponents weren’t exactly the toughest teams in baseball (Yankees twice, A’s and Rangers) He did pitch well in his one start vs. the Indians this year (1 run allowed in 6 innings).  Carlos Carrasco is one of the Indians outstanding pitchers but has struggled against the Twins the past 3 years. The Twinkies are 4-0 vs. Carrasco scoring 19 runs in 27 innings of work while batting .316. The twins offense which was dormant most of 2016 has actually been quite good the past couple of weeks. The Twins will be Dogs in this game and you will be able to cash in.
Saturday July 16th
Astros over Mariners The Astros are a team on the rise and so is pitcher Lance McCullers. The Astros beat Seattle earlier in July in a McCullers start 2-1.  Hisashi Iwakuma has been beat up twice this year against the Astros. He lost 5-1 back in May and 7-4 in April. He wasn’t much better last year either vs. the ‘Stros giving up 4 runs in 5innings of work.
Royals over Tigers Danny Duffy has been fantastic since joining the Royals rotation in mid-May. He took a no decision in a 10-4 loss to Detroit on June 16th when he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings of work. The Tigers have batted a whopping .176 against Duffy the past 3 seasons. Mike Pelfrey pitched great in his first 2 starts of July 1 run allowed and 6+ innings in each game. He did however lose to the Royals back in April and in the last 3 years has a 5.34 ERA and a .336 batting average against the Royals.
Sunday July 17th
Royals over Tigers Michael Fulmer lost to the Royals back on June 17th despite only allowing 1 run. The Royals did make him work, making the youngster throw 100 pitches in 5 and 1/3 innings. Yordano Ventura is all over the place with his pitching and with his emotions on a game to game basis. He has beaten the Tigers twice in 2016 allowing 2 runs in 12 innings. Prior to this season Ventura has been 4-0 with a 3.86 era against the Tigers. A risky pick, but take the Royals and that great bullpen to hold off the Tigers. Hopefully Ventura remembered to take his meds during the all-star break.
Brewers over Reds Even though Zach Davies was recently demoted to AAA it was to create a roster spot prior to the All-Star break. He had an outstanding June with an ERA under 3. He did have a 6 run blow up in his last start of June. I am a bit concerned that he has given up 9, 8 and 7 hits in his last 3 starts. Dan Strailey had a rough June with an ERA of 6.43 but his first 2 starts in June have been solid allowing 3 runs in both starts. I am banking on a solid Davies start and that horrendous Reds bullpen allowing the Brewers to pull away.

**Braves over Rockies all weekend is a possibility.

**Reds over Brewers on Friday

**Reds/Brewers over in runs on Saturday.

MLB Props
AL Cy Young Odds +225 Danny Salazar, +1600 Chris Tillman
NL Cy Young Odds Madison Bumgarner +450
NL MVP Daniel Murphy +900
AL MVP Jose Altuve +500, David Ortiz +600, Manny Machado +550
Al West Astros +375

 

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