My Major League Baseball Picks for the week of September 5th through the 11th. The record for my MLB Picks for the entire season can be found at the bottom of this post.
Royals over Twins
Ian Kennedy goes for the Royals on Labor Day. His last two starts have been Laborous against the Red Sox (9 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings) and Yankees (4 runs in 6+ innings loss). The reason to take this game is old friend Jose Berrios goes for the Twins in place of Pat Dean. Berrios is terrible and was just recalled from AAA. Win some money take the Royals
Marlins over Phillies
Jose Urena has pitched in 3 games against the Phillies, one of those was a start. He has allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in those games. The good news for Phillies fans is that Adam Morgan lowered his ERA in the month of August. The bad news is that his ERA was 4.79 a full 3 runs better than his ERA in the Month of July. Phillies pitching coach Bob McClure calls Adam, “Captain”, not for his leadership abilities but because he hides a fifth of Captain Morgan in the dugout so he can get through one of his starts. Take the Fish
Rays over Orioles
The Orioles have faced Jake Odorizzi 4 times this season and have 12 runs in 22 innings and have batted .348 against the southpaw. The damage has been done in Baltimore however where Odorizzi has given up 9 runs and only 3 at the Trop. The Rays have hit Yovani Gallardo to the tune of a .368 batting average this year. Gallardo has a 7.18 ERA on the road. Take the Rays.
Twins/Royals over runs
Ervin Santana won his last outing giving up only 2 runs but he gave up 11 hit and 2 walks in 5 innings of work. The end of his hot run pitching may have ended in that blown game in Toronto at the end of August. Dillon Gee has bounced between the pen and the rotation this season. He has 3 starts against the Twinkies and pitched well at home and was torched at Target. I like Santana but this game is going to hit the over in runs.
Mets over Reds@
The month June and July was a struggle for Noah Syndegaard despite his low ERA teams were able to hit the big Texan. That has changed in August as he has held teams to a .218 batting average. Thor has really given the Reds trouble prior to this year with a sub 2 ERA and a .171 batting average against. Anthony DeSclafani is 8-2 this year for the Reds and has been a solid consistent starter but he has not fared well against the Mets in the past. In 3 games (2 starts) he has given up 20 hits for a .426 batting average and allowed 17 runs. Take the Mets.
Indians@ over Astros
Carlos Carrasco dominated the first 3 months of the season but the Dog Days of August really took a bite. (5.20 ERA and .280 Batting average against) His first start of September went well and he has done very well against the Astros the past 3 years with a 2.05 ERA and a .191 batting average against. Doug Fister pitched well in one start against the Tribe this year but struggled in 2 starts in the previous 3 years. A game that both teams need, take the Tribe.
Reds over Pirates
Dan Straily has done a fine job the 2nd half of the season and has some great numbers against the Pirates. In 4 games (3 starts) he has gone 21 innings allowing only 12 hits and 6 runs while holding the Bucs to a .174 average. Ivan Nova has been great switching from the American League to the National League what a shock. The Reds did touch him up for 3 runs in his Pirates debut but the Bucs still won that game. The Nova is 4-0 and the Pirates are 5-1 in his 6 starts. They did lose his last start and it seems about time for Nova to regress to what he was in the AL a below average pitcher. Take the Reds.
Nationals over Phillies
Tanner Roark has had a heck of a season going 14-8. He has owned the Phillies this year going 3-0 in 4 sarts with a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings. The young Phillies starter Jake Thompson has actually pitched well in his past two starts but still ended up with the loss. One of those was against the Nats in he went 7 strong only giving up 2 runs on 7 hits. The rest of his outings this year however have not gone well at all with an ERA over 7. Take the Nats in this one.
Cardinals over Brewers
Carlos Martinez has won 4 games in a row giving up 5 runs in that span. He gets the Brewers at home (he is actually better on the road this year) and he is 2-0 in 3 start against the Brew Crew. In 19 innings he has given up 2 runs and 13 hits. Jimmy Nelson has a tough time on the road. His ERA is approaching 6 away from Milwaukee and in 2 starts against the Cards he has pitched 12 innings allowing 14 hits, 6 walks but somehow escaped with only 5 runs. The good fortune ends on Friday take the Cardinals.
Yankees over Rays
The Yankees are on a roll and Masahiro Tanaka is 5-0 in his last six starts, all Yankee wins. Tanaka only has one loss at home despite having a much higer ERA (4.08) at Yankee Stadium. The Rays Chris Archer has a chance to lose 20 games this year. He has some odd duck stats as well. He has more losses at home (9) than away (8) despit a 2.83 home ERA and a 5.79 on the road. In 14 innings against the Yanks he has given up 11 hits, 3 walks and 9 runs. Take the surging Yankees to win and challenge for the AL WIld Card.
Dodgers over Marlins
Rich Hill the road warrior back from his blister issues. He is on 7-0 on the road with a 1.41 ERA. Tom Koehler is fairly consistent he beats the medicore teams and loses to the good teams. He did however beat the Dodgers in one start this year. That is a rare win against a quality opponent. Take the Dodgers and the Road Warrior.
Indians over Twins
A Sunday gift Jose Berrios is back on the mound. Cory Kluber is 1-1 this year against the Twins and 7-5 the past 3 years. the Twins still have trouble hitting Kluber batting only .224 in that time. There is no need for special stats though just pick against Berrios and maybe even use the run line.