MLB Picks Card for September 12th-18th

My Major League Baseball Picks for the week of September 5th through the 11th. Last week I pulled off another Shawn Dunston (.700 win percentage or better) by going 9-3. That was my 6th week this season with a .700 or better winning percentage. The record for my MLB Picks for the entire season can be found at the bottom of this post.

MLB Picks  
Monday 9/12
Indians over White Sox Carlos Carraso has seemed to find his way again after a miserable July where his ERA was 5.20. Every other month this season he had posted a sub 3 ERA. He has 2 starts against the White Sox without earning a decision but has pitched well enough to to win. MIguel Gonzolez has just returned from the DL on September 6th and went fairly deep going 6 and 1/3 innings allowing 6 hits and no runs. The White Sox are just having trouble winning games and the Tigers have hit Gonzalez at a .277 clip the past 3 years. Take the Indians in the best of a bad slate of games.
Tue 9/13
Tiger over Twins Matt Boyd has been a great back of the rotation guy for the Tigers this season. He has done well against the Twins in 2 starts going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a .190 batting average against. The Twins have all back of the rotation guys on their staff with the exception of Ervin Santana. Kyle Gibson has a loss this year versus the Tigers in one start and is 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA the previous 3 season. Take the Tigers over the Twinkies.
Angels/Mariners over Runs Tijuan Walker has been a miserable pitcher the last 3 months (July 11.25 ERA, August 6.88, September 12.71). If that 8.34 post All-Star break ERA wasn’t bad enough he has one start this year vs. the Angels and he gave up 13 hits and 12 runs in 4+ innings. Alex Meyer was acquired by the Angels from Minnesota who has no pitching. This game could have 20 runs scored.
Wed 9/14
Angels over Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma might be getting tired down the stretch. He has not pitched terrible but just good enough to lose in most cases. In 4 starts versus the Angels he is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA. Tyler Skaggs pitched well against the M’s in his last start on 9/3 giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. I am taking the Angels offense to win this game.
Thu 9/15
Dodgers over D-Backs Rich Hill is pitching on the road and this has been a solid pick all season long. The only worry is that a blister issue might occur and he doesn’t start or comes out after an inning or two. Archie Bradley pitched once against the Dodgers this year and gave up 6 runs. Double check that Hill is starting and take the Dodgers.
Blue Jays/Angels over runs JA Happ was hit hard by the Angles a couple weeks ago. This might seem like just a bad day for Happ who has had a great year but in the past 3 years Happ has had 5 starts against the Angels and is 0-5 with the Angels battering him around at a .325 clip for 17 runs and 18 innings. Daniel Wright has been a hit machine this year for two franchises. The Blue Jays will bats will be primed for this one as the will need to score a bunch to win. Take the over in runs.
Fri. 9/16
Orioles over Rays The Orioles trot out Ubaldo Jimenez not a great pitcher by any means but they have won his last three starts. He is 3-1 versus the Rays the past 3 seasons with a decent ERA and batting average against. Chris Archer is just 2 losses away from hitting 20. He did have a rough start but the past 3 months his ERA has been under 4, he just seems to pitch well enough to lose. He has not pitched well against Baltimore this year and in the previous few seasons when he was a more effective pitcher he had his trouble with the O’s. Take the Orioles in the Chris Archer snake bit season.
Marlins over Phillies The Marlins have lost 4 straight Tom Koehler starts. This should not be a shock those games were all against good teams (Dodgers, Indians, Mets and Royals). Adam Morgan has thrown well in his past 3 starts, that is a step in the right direction for the kid. He has thrown well in one game against the Marlins this year but that could change with a second look at the youngster. This is a bad Phillies team though and Koehler has pitched very well against bad teams especially the Phillies. In 28 innings he has given up 14 hits and 7 runs (4 earned). Take the Fish.
Mets over Twins Bartolo Colon has been the most reliable starter for the Mets. That’s scary and even scarier is that they are in playoff contention with all their injuries. The reason to take this game is the Twins will once again throw Jose Berrios. Jose me the Mets and another loss for the Twinkies.
White Sox over Royals Chris Sale has gone 8 or more innings in his past 5 starts. The White Sox have lost his last 4 starts despite him giving up 3,2,2 and 2 runs. The law of averages swing in Sale’s direction after that run with things evening out. Ian Kennedy goes for the Royals and he has pitched okay against the White Sox but Sale will win this one.
Sat 9/17
Red Sox over Yankees The Sox have won 7 straight David Price starts but the Yankees have lit him up this season. Price has given up 15 runs in 17 innings against the Yanks. The Yanks are 5 out of the East and 3 out of the WIld Card. They had their hearts broken on Wednesday and Thursday night this week. They need to stem the tide and they Bryan Mitchell to the mound. The Yanks have done great to contend for this long but Price will end his bad stretch against the Yanks this weekend, take the Sox.
Orioles over Rays Chris Tillman has not been right since that shoulder injury a month back. He looked somewhat like his old self in his last start. The Rays are just what he needs. He is 3-0 in 4 starts against Tampa this year with a .235 batting average against. Matt Andriese was beat up at home against the O’s on September 5th and you can expect more of the same at Camden Yards, take the O’s.
Rangers over A’s The Rangers have won 6 of Yu Darvish’s last seven starts. He has pitched well in starts against the A’s this year despite have struggled against Oakland in the past. Raul Alcantra has 2 career starts and has given up 7 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings. Take Darvish and the Rangers in this one.
Sun 9/18
Cubs over Brewers Kyle Hendricks coming off his almost no hitter. He has been dominant much of this season. WIly Peralta has been the exact opposite. Even if the Cubs rest players which is a possibility on a Sunday afternoon for a team that has already clinched the Cubbies will still win.
Mariners over Astros Rookie Ariel Miranda has had it going on the last two starts and seems to have found himself. Doug Fister has been scuffling just like the Astros lately. He did at least last 5 innings in his last start, first time he had done that since back on August 22nd. Take the fightin M’s trying to get a Wild Card spot.

 

MLB Picks W L Win Pct.
4/4-4/10 4 4 0.500
4/11-4/17 14 3 0.824
4/18-4/24 14 11 0.560
4/25-5/1 13 8 0.619
5/2-5/8 14 9 0.609
5/9-5/15 19 16 0.543
5/16-5/21 7 3 0.700
5/22-5/29 10 6 0.625
5/30-6/5 7 8 0.467
6/6-6/12 8 3 0.727
6/13-6/19 19 11 0.633
6/20-6/26 7 8 0.467
6/27-7/3 11 12 0.478
7/4-7/10 18 8 0.692
7/14-7/17 3 4 0.429
7/18-7/24 13 5 0.722
7/25-7/31 9 15 0.375
8/1-8/7 7 3 0.700
8/8-8/14 7 4 0.636
8/15-8/21 11 5 0.688
8/22-8/28 9 9 0.500
8/29-9/4 9 6 0.600
9/5-9/11 9 3 0.750
9/12-9/18
242 164 0.595

 

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