My Major League Baseball Picks for the week of September 19th through the 25th. I went from the Penthouse to Doghouse last week. Two weeks ago I pulled of the Shawn Dunston and then followed it up with my worst week of the year 5-9-1. I am still above .500 for September 18-16-1 but need to close out very strong if I want to get to 100 games above the .500 mark. The record for my MLB Picks for the entire season can be found at the bottom of this post.
Rangers over Angels
Martin Perez has pitched well in his last three starts. Even more impressive was that two of those starts were on the road where he has struggles mightly this year. The numbers for Martin against the Angels look awful but all that damage was in Anahiem, in his one start against the Halo’s at home he shut them out. Jhoulys Chacin has thrown well against Texas this year but the past couple months have been a rough go for the Jouhlys of the Nile giving up 20 runs in 31 innings. Take the Rangers and Martin Perez at home.
Marlins over Nationals
Tanner Roark has been very good for the Nationals this year but the Marlins have beat the hell out of him in 2016. In 4 starts he has given up 17 runs, 30 hits in 21+ innings. Jose Fernandez after going 11-4 with a 2.52 before the All-Star Break has gone 4-4 with a 3.76 ERA. In 3 starts against the Nationals this year he is 3-0 giving up just 3 runs in 19 innings while holding Washington to a .169 batting average against. Take Fernandez and the Fish.
A’s over Astros
Sean Manaea is 0-1 in 3 starts versus the Astros but he has pitched pretty darn well in those 3 games. In 15 innings he has only allowed 10 hits and 4 earned runs. He probably deserved a little better outcome in those 3 earlier starts and this is where it evens out for Manaea. Joe Musgrove takes the bump and he pitched well against the A’s the first time he faced them going 5+ innings allowing no runs on 3 hits. The second time around might be a little more difficult for the rookie. Take the A’s.
Blue Jays over Mariners
JA Happ is one victory away from 20. The Jays are fighting for the AL East and the AL Wild Card. The last time he faced Seattle he went 6 innings allowing no runs and only 2 hits. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched very well against the Bluejays this year and in years past. We have 2 teams fighting for that Wild Card spot (Seattle is 2 games back) but Seattle has been hotter than a pistol and they are bound to cool off. I am going with the better pitcher Happ and better offense (slightly) Toronto in this one.
Astros over A’s
The Astros have won the past 6 Colin McHugh starts and he has good numbers against the A’s. Daniel Mengden beat KC in his last start but was staked to a big lead and cruised through that game. Prior to the Royals he had some struggles. The Astros have had their way with the young pitcher this year in 2 starts scoring 9 runs, 11 hits and 7 walks in just 9 and 2/3 innings of work. Take the Astros who need the game more as they still fight for the wild card.
White Sox over Phillies
This is just a game to try to get my record to 100 games above .500. Chris Sale top line pitcher versus Jerad Eickhoff an up and coming youngster. A bit scary is how well Eickhoff pitches at home.
Indians over Royals
Cory Kluber after a rough start is 17-9, an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.04. There is a reason why he won the CY Young award. Ian Kennedy is a .500 pitcher and has done a decent job against the Tribe and actually has pitched better on the road as of late to even out those splits. Take Kluber and the Indians in this one.
Nationals over Marlins
This is another game with a crappy money line but a win is a win. Maz Scherzer versus Tom Koehler on the mound. Koehler has had trouble with the good teams. The Nats are good. Keep it simple silly, take the Nats.
Rangers over Angels
Cole Hamels has not pitched the same since the all-star break but his splits 3.74 ERA and .242 batting average against is still pretty darn good. Jered Weaver has pitched well lately and has lasted the whole season. He is 2-0 against the Rangers this year with a .213 batting average against. He has 666 at bats against him this year, bad sign. The Rangers solve the Jered Weaver mystery and keep climbing towards the best record in the American League
Tigers over Twins
The Tigers Anibal Sanchez is not a good pitcher. The good news is he doesn’t have to be good to beat the Twins. Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Twinkies and he is the gift that keeps on giving. Thank you Minnesota for leaving him in the rotation.
Padres over D-Backs
The transition to Arizona for Zack Greinke has not gone well this year it could be the pressure of the big contract, not being comfortable with the catcher or the tougher ballpark. I am sure things will turn around next year. Luis Perdomo goes for the Padres at home and he has had some success against the Diamondbacks this year. In 6 appearance (2 starts) spanning 18 innings he allowed 4 earned runs. Take the padres.
Dodgers over Giants
Kenta Maeda has had a very good rookie campaign for the Dodgers going 15-9 with a 3.24 ERA. He is 2-0 against the Giants giving up 4 runs in those 2 games. Matt Moore has done a good job for the Giants but the Giants are a reeling team since the All-Star break. Despite Moore throwing a 1 hitter for 8 and 2/3 innings last time against the Dodgers I am still take the Tommy Lasorda’s.
Tigers over Twins
Unfortunately the rain Gods denied us the chance to win money against the Twins Jose Berrios yesterday when the game was stopped in the 3rd innings. This match up is not as good but will still be profitable. Anibal Sanchez has not been good this year and his stats stink in 2 starts against the Twins but he did pitch well in that one start at Target Field. Pat Dean might not be Jose Berrios but the Twins have lost 10 consecutive games he has pitched in, the last time he tasted victory was June 12th. In 6 innings pitched against the Twins he has given 11 hits and 4 walks, yet only 2 runs scored. That luck will not continue, take the Tigers.
Mets over Phillies
The Mets keep winning and are somehow in the playoff hunt despite all their injuries. Seth Lugo is a big reason why with a 2.35 ERA and a .215 batting average against in 50+ innings as a starter and out of the pen. The Phillies beat Chris Sale last night they are not likely to string a few together here especially with Adam Morgan on the hill. Take Seth Lugo and the Mets.
Tigers over Twins
Justin Verlander is back to his old self in 2017. He has an ERA in the low 3’s and his WHIP is only a 1.01. The Twins are batting .151 against him in 15 innings of play. Ervin Santana has pitched better lately and I thought about ending my fade in his games. The Tigers though really need these games to get that second wild card spot so I will take the Tigers despite Santana’s good numbers against them this year.
Rockies over Dodgers
I am looking a searching for a silver lining in this game. I think I found one with Tyler Chatwood. Despite his struggles in September his numbers are okay against the Dodgers (4.00 ERA and .247 batting average against) He threw an 8 inning 1 hitter last time he has in Dodger Stadium. Brett Anderson goes for the Dodgers and he has been shelled by the Reds and Pirates in his 2 starts this year. Unless Doc Brown gets the flux capacitor working don’t expect Oakland A’s Brett Anderson circa 2009 to emerge out of that dugout
Giants over Padres
Jeff Samardzija has pitched much different in the 2nd half of the season as he did in the first. He had 9 wins prior to the all-star break and only 2 after. That is a reflection of the Giants this season. He has a 3-1 record against the Padres in 5 starts this season and the Padres are only batting .167 against him while in Petco. Christian Friedrich makes his first start against the Giants and he has been below average in every split I look at, I am taking the Giants.
Phillies over Mets
Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well his past couple starts and I am going to ride the Phils despite his struggles against the Mets this year. Gabriel Ynoa is yet another young pitcher filling in for the Mets. He has given up 10 runs in 10 innings this year. This almost seems like a game the Mets are throwing away and will rest players and go win the rest of the series. Take the Phillies.
Cubs over Cardinals
I am taking Jake Arrieta and the Cubs over the Cardinals. Jake Arrieta has seemingly struggled post all-star break but in reality he has been tougher to hit. Mike Leake is the Forrest Gump box of chocolate pitcher, you just don’t know what you might get. He has been below average against the Cubs.
Blue Jays over Yankees
Francisco Liriano has been traded and demoted to the bullpen and is now back to starting. He beat the Rays allowing 2 runs and despite a loss to the Angels 2 of the 4 runs were unearned. Bryan Mitchell in his debut shut out the Blue Jays for 5 innings. He was rocked in his next two starts. This will make it 3 in a row.
Orioles over Diamondbacks
The Orioles need this game desperately and send Yovani Gallardo to the mound who has struggled lately and has not fared to well against the D-Backs from his NL days. Shelby Miller is the reason you take this game though as he has been a run machine all year.
Pirates over Nationals
Jameson Tallion has been as advertised for the Pirates, a top notch pitcher. Gio Gonzalez has had some issues lately giving up 13 runs in his last 3 games. Take the rookie.
Tigers over Royals
Michael Fulmer now has competition for the AL rookie of the year award with Gary Sanchez. He has been incredible for the Tigers, although he has struggled in the second half against the Indians and Red Sox. That might be something to look at in October. He is 0-2 against the Royals despite pitching really well. Danny Duffy had a run in July and August where he was confident and almost unhittable. The confidence is gone and the hits keep on coming. Fulmer gets his first win against the Royals in a game the Tigers need.
Marlins over Braves
The last time Andrew Cashner faced the Braves he was rocked. The last time Matt Wisler faced the Marlins he was rocked. I am taking the veteran to make some adjustments and Wisler the rookie to continue to struggle. Take the fish.
Red Sox over Rays
Rick Porcello threw a complete game in just 89 pitches against the Orioles. That might be hard to top but he is 4-0 in 5 starts against the Rays this year so he might just be capable of better. Matt Andriese has an ERA over 7 in 3 games against the Sox. No Brainer.
Reds over Brewers
Dan Straily has had his way with the Brew Crew this year allowing only 4 runs and a .213 batting average against in 20 innings of work Taylor Jungmannhad some success last year against the Reds in 19 innings but he has had a rough ride in his brief stint with the big club in 2017. Ride the Reds.
Mariners over Twins
Ariel Miranda has improved and gotten better with each appearance this year. He now gets the Twins and Tyler Duffey who has regressed as the year has progressed. That is not good when you didn’t start out well to begin with.
Giants over Padres
Madison Bumgarner amazingly is 2-2 against the Padres despite a mostly dominnating performance (.227 batting averaga against) Jarred Cosart has an 11.12 ERA in September.
Brewers over Reds
I usually pick against Wily Peralta but I am going with one eyed Wily in this one. He has had success against the Reds this year and Brandon Finnegan has had his problems with the Brewers in 2016.
I wish I had more for Sunday but I am not going to get to 100 games over picking losers.