MLB Picks July 22nd-24th, trade Deadline watch

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Jeffrey “Coach” Belanger in podcast 68, the Matt Barnes episode. Coach puts on his Amazing Melon Head thinking cap and runs down possible players that will be traded and a few teams that might overpay to make a deal. He then gives his picks for July 22nd, 23rd and 24th. You can contact Coach with any sports or gambling related comments and questions at or on twitter @coachbelanger.

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MLB Picks 
Friday July 22nd
Indians/Orioles over Runs There is a common theme in Trevor Bauer losses, he allows more flyballs than groundballs. He will need to keep the ball down against this Orioles line up that mashes in the launching pad that is Camden Yards. In his last two starts the ball has been up and the flyballs have been up, hit count was up also 15 in 11 innings to go with 5 walks. In the last 3 years at Camden Yards he has given up 4 homers in 11 innings. Dylan Bundy made his first start of the year last week versus the Dodgers and was out of the game early allowing 5 hits and 3 of those left the park. This will be a high scoring one in Baltimore.
Blue Jays over Mariners Marco Estrada  return from the DL was pushed back a few days.  Estrad has been great this year 2.93 era with a 0.99 WHIP. He is even better at home 2.44 ERA with a .151 batting average against. James Paxton came out off the break like his last start before the break , giving up a lot of hits. The start before the break he wiggled out of trouble allowing only 2 runs the Astros touched him up for 6 after the break.
Astros over Angels Lance McCullers despite his wildness that limits the length of his starts has kept the Astros in games. He is a much better pitcher at home 2.61  home and 5.57 away. Matt Shoemaker had a complete game 13 strike out shut out versus the White Sox in his last start. That game was home his away splits are not so hot. The Angels have been playing better but so have the Astros, take the ‘Stros in this one.
Saturday July 23rd
Indians over Orioles Jake Tomlin has been great this year and doesn’t have much of a track record agaisnt the Orioles.The Indians have cooled off a lot since their long winning streak. Kevin Gausman is 1-7 goes for the Orioles and if you look at the stats you wouldn’t expect that record. A decent WHIP and ERA but he and the Orioles always seem to find a way to lose his starts. I am counting on that happening again against the Tribe.
Brewers over Cubs Zach Davies just keeps gettiung better and better as the season moves along. He had a 2.89 ERA in June and in 2 July starts has given up 2 runs in 13+ innings. The Cubs are 1-5 in John Lackey ‘s last 6 starts. That one win he gave up 5 runs and had a no decesion. Two pitchers going in different directions.
Astros over Angels Colin McHugh has had 6 straight quality starts. Two of those were against the Angels (3-2 and 4-2 wins).  Jared Weaver has been a gutsy pitcher for the Angels this year mixing in a gem or two every once in awhile. Thise gems have not been against the Astros 0-2 allowing 10 runs in 11 innings.
Sunday July 24th
Blue Jays over Mariners JA Happ gets to face his old team the Seattle Mariners. Happ has pitched well enough to win most of the time for the Blue Jays. (Blue Jays are 14-5 in his starts) Wade LeBlanc has pitched pretty well in his 4 starts but it looks like the hits keep going up and up with each game. The Blue Jays can hit so that trend might continue for LeBlanc.
Red Sox over Twins Rick Porcello is at home so bet the Red Sox. (9-0, 2.98 ERA) He actual has a better battaing average against on the road .242 than home .261.  Tommy Milone has been pretty good in his past few starts, winning three in a row to start July. Can one of the Sox Killer P’s come through!
Brewers/Cubs under runs Junior Guerra got a no decision in his last start vs. the Pirates allowing 2 runs. (The Pirates won with a Josh Harrison walk off triple/error in the ninth) Jon Lester hasn’t faced the Brewers yet this year but has been pretty dominante against them in the past 3 years. (1.77 ERA and .221 Batting average against.) This game has the feel of a 2-1, 3-2 outcome. Bet the under.


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